Massive mining expansion needed for electric vehicle revolution, study warns

To meet government mandates for electric vehicles (EV), a total of 388 new mines must be built to extract the metals required for EV production, according to a new study by Canadian think tank Fraser Institute.

“The sheer scale of mining required to meet EV mandates raises serious questions about the timelines being imposed by governments,” said Kenneth Green, senior fellow at the institute.

According to a Canadian federal mandate, all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in Canada must be zero-emission by 2035 and 50% of all new passenger cars and light trucks in the US must be zero-emission by 2030.

Mr Green said to meet international EV mandates, a total of 388 new mines must be built to provide the necessary minerals including nickel and lithium.

For context, as of 2021, only 270 metal mines operated in the US and only 70 operated in Canada.

The Fraser Institute report found that the need to locate, design, develop and build mining and refining projects – coupled with delays related to government-imposed regulatory requirements – means it can take significant time to get mining projects up and running.

Mr Green says that, for example, lithium production takes between six and nine years, and nickel production takes between 13 and 18 years.

“In light of these production timelines, the Canadian federal EV mandate, which is approximately 11 years away (2035), seems unrealistic,” Mr Green said.

“The significant risk of inadequate mineral and metal production threatens the viability and realism of government-mandated EV transition plans.”

IEA comments

The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that to meet international EV adoption pledges, the world will need 50 new lithium mines by 2030, along with 60 new nickel mines and 17 new cobalt mines.

The materials needed for cathode production will require 50 new mines and anode materials another 40. The battery cells will require 90 new mines and EVs themselves another 81.

In total, this adds up to 388 new mines.

Mr Green said that, as of 2021, there were only 270 metal mines operating across the US, and only 70 in Canada.

Supply chain issues

“If Canada and the US wish to have internal supply chains for these vital EV metals, they have a lot of mines to establish in a very short period,” he added.

“Barring breakthrough developments in battery technology, this massive and rapid expansion of battery-electric vehicle production will require a correspondingly massive and rapid expansion of the mining and refining of the metals and rare earth elements critical to battery-electric vehicle technology.”

The Fraser Institute report found that the establishment of aggressive and short-term EV adoption goals sets up a potential conflict with metal and mineral production, which is historically characterised by long lead-times and long production timelines.

“The risk that mineral and mining production will fall short of projected demand is significant and could greatly affect the success of various governments’ plans for EV transition.”