Weekly review: late bounce sees market close flat, lithium prices soar
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
After six weeks of consecutive gains the market finished flat this week with the ASX 200 narrowly lower 0.06% to close Friday trade at 6758.8 points.
Despite a drop on Monday and a flat midweek of trading, the market bounced on Friday following news out of the US on inflation.
Was the inflation news positive?
No, not at all, however logic and reason have long since left the market.
Inflation continues to rage
Core inflation data in the US came in hotter than expected at 6.6% – exceeding the 6.4% forecast.
Surprisingly, the market rallied on the news, with many speculating the US plunge protection team has once again stepped in to rescue the markets.
Despite the US Federal Reserve’s stated goal being to curtail the excessive inflation, we could see a more dovish tone from the central bank over the next few weeks with the US midterms coming up on 8 November.
The Fed will not want to be seen as impacting the elections negatively towards Joe Biden, given the fact that for every Republican the Fed hires it has 10-12 Democrats employed on its books, despite claiming to be a non-partisan organisation.
Meaning we may see a rate rise of only 0.25% next rather than the sharper 0.5% and 0.75% rises we’ve seen in recent months.
If so, this could be seen as an early ‘pivot’ many investors have been waiting for, providing some temporary relief for the market that have been in a clear downward trend this year.
UK bond market drama
While the Fed is tightening, the Bank of England (BOE) has been scrambling for the past two weeks to buy UK Government bonds as they essentially went ‘no bid’, meaning that no one was stepping up to buy them and the central bank has had to come into the market as the buyer of last resort.
Failure to do so would have seen UK pension funds almost certainly collapse, this is how fragile the system has become.
The BOE’s emergency bond-buying program is set to end overnight; however, in the latest drama, finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng has just been sacked by prime minister Liz Truss.
With the pound having lost over 17% of its value this year versus the US dollar, the UK looks anything but stable.
Unlike 2008, when the banks were in crisis, we are now seeing governments come under pressure and with rising global interest rates and a strengthening US dollar we may be headed for another fireworks show in the near future.
However the question to ponder is if it’s the governments this time around that become insolvent and unable to meet their debt obligations, who bails them out?
Lithium prices hit all-time high in China
The price for lithium in China reportedly hit an all-time high this week as battery manufacturers look to secure supply amid growing demand from the electric vehicle market.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Chinese battery grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.7% in the past week to reach an all-time high of $74,475 a tonne.
Lithium prices have risen 108% in 2022.
Small cap stock action
The Small Ords index shed 2.43% for the week to close at 2673 points.
ASX 200 vs Small Ords
Small cap companies making headlines this week were:
St George Mining (ASX: SGQ)
High-grade lithium has been confirmed in rock chip samples from St George Mining’s Mt Alexander project in Western Australia, while ongoing field mapping has identified a significant extension of outcropping pegmatites containing visible lithium minerals.
Assays for the first batch of 10 selective samples indicated grades up to 2.72% lithium oxide within several stacked dykes in a north-south zone at the Jailbreak prospect.
Strong caesium, tantalum and rubidium values were also recorded and are often associated with significant lithium deposits at depth.
St George said the grade and scale at Jailbreak indicates a highly-prospective pegmatite-hosted lithium mineral system in its early stage of evaluation.
The company will launch a maiden drilling campaign at Mt Alexander this quarter.
Queensland Pacific Metals (ASX: QPM)
Australia-based Queensland Pacific Metals this week announced it had entered into an investment and offtake agreement with General Motors Holdings for the Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub (TECH) project.
Under the terms of the deal, General Motors will be eligible to purchase all uncommitted nickel and cobalt sulphate produced in the first 15 years of TECH phase one.
If the company commits to an additional investment at final investment decision, its offtake rights will be extended across the life of the project, and it will be granted the right to purchase 100% of phase two offtake.
General Motors has also agreed to make a conditional commitment of up to $108 million by way of an equity subscription to Queensland Pacific, and will subscribe for $31.4 million in shares at $0.18 per share.
The funding will be used for TECH’s ongoing development and construction.
Adveritas (ASX: AV1)
Ad fraud mitigation developer Adveritas has reported an annualised revenue of more than $3 million following new contract wins in the 2022 financial year.
The figure represents a 78% increase on the start of the calendar year and reflects the signing of new clients from pay-per-click (PPC) and mobile and affiliate solutions.
Adveritas attributed the growth to direct sales and Google Cloud Marketplace contracts for fraud mitigation software TrafficGuard, including an accelerated client renewal rate.
Dreadnought Resources (ASX: DRE)
Dreadnought Resources has confirmed that assays from drilling at the Yin ironstone complex within the Mangaroon project in Western Australia have returned thick, high-grade rare earth element mineralisation.
The results were generated from 43 reverse circulation holes completed in December along the first 3km strike of the 16km Yin trend.
The company’s rig has since commenced exploration at the first five of seven carbonatites (C1-C7) which are believed to be a regional source of rare earth elements.
Taruga Minerals (ASX: TAR)
Over in South Australia, Taruga Minerals this week announced the discovery of clay-hosted rare earth element mineralisation from surface at the Mt Craig project.
Drilling at the Morgans Creek prospect returned the highest values of dysprosium-terbium and neodymium-praseodymium intercepted to date.
The mineralisation also contains low thorium and uranium which are beneficial for downstream processing of REE concentrates, as well as low cerium.
Taruga said the results confirm the Mt Craig geological model and have increased the Morgans Creek primary strike to 1.4km.
Incannex Healthcare (ASX: IHL)
Incannex Healthcare progressed two drugs in its portfolio this week, with phase 2 trials for IHL-675A in the works following preliminary positive phase 1 safety data.
During the phase 1 trial, IHL-675A was well-tolerated and no serious adverse events reported to-date. Participants will be monitored until the end of the month, with full trial data expected early next year.
The phase 2 studies will evaluate IHL-675A in treating rheumatoid arthritis, lung inflammation and inflammatory bowel disease.
Earlier in the week, Incannex announced it had completed a pre-investigational new drug (IND) application meeting with the US FDA relating to its drug IHL-216A for treating traumatic brain injury.
Incannex requires an IND before it can undertake trails in the US and ensure its studies meet the FDA’s data requirements.
Recharge Metals (ASX: REC)
Drilling at a new down hole transient electromagnetic (DHTEM) conductor at Recharge Metals’ Brandy Hill South has intercepted “significant” sulphide zones.
Two diamond holes were completed at the DHTEM conductor and unearthed zones of massive sulphides, blebby sulphides and disseminated sulphides.
The holes totalled 843.8m and a further three will be undertaken across two other high-priority anomalies.
Recharge managing director Brett Wallace said he was looking forward to seeing the assays for these holes along with eight previously completed pre-collar holes.
The week ahead
In Australia, employment data for September is out next week, which is expected to show that unemployment in the country is sitting at 3.4%.
Earnings reports to note next week are from Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), BPH (ASX: BHP), Telstra (ASX: TLS), Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and Brambles (ASX: BXB).
Overnight in the US, retail sales numbers will be released indicating how consumers are reacting to rapidly changing market conditions. Sales numbers are expected to come in at 0.2%, down from 0.4% growth the month prior.
Next week in the US, new home and existing home sales data is expected to reflect a slowdown caused by recent interest rate rises and the increased cost of living.
In China, gross domestic product numbers will be worth keeping an eye on, with 3.3-3.5% GDP expected, which would be a major bounce from 0.4% the previous quarter.