Implications for global gas markets as Golden Pass LNG project in US delayed again

Australia’s gas producers may be the beneficiaries of ongoing delays to the giant Golden Pass LNG Terminal project in Texas.

It has been reported that the terminal’s operators Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy have elected to delay the start of the approximately $15 billion natural gas export project until the end of next year after lead contractor Zachry Holdings declared bankruptcy.

The Golden Pass project has already been hit by several setbacks this year and the new schedule for the 18 million-metric-tonnes-per-year facility—one of the USA’s biggest—will now see it begin operations about six months later than previously planned.

Reduced supply

Wood Mackenzie says the new six-month delay to Golden Pass Texas will remove a fair amount of new supply from the market in a period of intense growth, shifting the surge from 2026 to 2027 and impacting both the global and North American gas markets.

“We have revised our forecast start-up for Golden Pass LNG by six months to December 2025,” said Mark Bononi, Wood Mackenzie’s principal of North America gas and LNG asset research.

“Specifically, we have pushed back first exports from Train 1 from June 2025 to December 2025, […] first exports from Train 2 from December 2025 to June 2026 and Train 3 from June 2026 to December 2026—keeping a six-month window between the start-up of the trains.”

According to the global energy research firm, this delay will remove 2.3 million tonnes per annum growth in 2025 and 5.2MMtpa in 2026 from its supply forecast.

Price pressures

“Because of its size, Golden Pass LNG’s deferment could briefly impact global LNG prices and US natural gas production and prices,” Mr Bononi added.

“Depending on the project’s construction, there remain risks of further delays at Golden Pass LNG and it could signal challenges to other US LNG projects.”

The Golden Pass project is being developed to add LNG and export capabilities to the existing terminal in Sabine Pass, Texas.

Texas is the nation’s leading producer of both crude oil and natural gas, while the US is the world’s largest producer of natural gas and became the largest exporter of LNG in 2023.

LNG sector woes

The US government shocked the local and international energy sector in late January, when it announced it was calling a halt on billions of dollars in new LNG export projects.

Soon after the decision was revealed, 16 US state government officials launched a legal bid against the federal government’s decision.

Texas and 15 other states filed the lawsuit on constitutional grounds, claiming it ignored the Natural Gas Act’s presumption in favour of exports, decades of Department of Energy policy and state and private reliance on exports.

A federal district judge in the US state of Louisiana recently ordered the Biden administration to lift a suspension on issuing key LNG export permits for new projects.