Goldman Sachs predicts AI infrastructure investments to propel CapEx growth in 2025
Growing investment in data centres and hardware for artificial intelligence (AI) technology will provide a boost to corporate spending next year, according to new research by Goldman Sachs.
Goldman is forecasting a 5% rebound in capital spending for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier.
The company believes continued AI investments could add half a percentage point to US CapEx growth.
ChatGPT impact
Goldman Sachs found that spending on data centres and hardware soared in 2023 following the launch of ChatGPT.
Analyst Elsie Peng said that it has continued to grow at a strong pace since then, reaching approximately $70 billion in the third quarter of 2024.
The company expects corporate spending on AI infrastructure to continue to grow next year, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in 2024.
Bitcoin energy
Elsewhere, S&P Global reports that bitcoin energy demand is on course to reach an all-time high of 1,230 megawatt-hours per bitcoin.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ “Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index” report, power price volatility continues to weigh on bitcoin mining profitability variability, despite higher energy consumption and a rise in the price to a new all-time high.
New data found that German and Spanish bitcoin mining profitability remained mostly out of money throughout November amid higher demand and colder temperatures, which boosted gas-for-power demand across major European power markets.
Demand flexibility
S&P says bitcoin miners have the ability to provide demand flexibility at times of higher power demand or tight supply in exchange for compensation but can also remain profitable by mining bitcoin at in-the-money power prices.
A record 2,863 negative hourly power prices were registered across ten major European power markets in 2024, compared to the previous high of 1,277 negative hourly prices a year prior.
Nuclear outages in Finland and Sweden resulted in a dip in bitcoin profitability amid seasonal power demand in the region.
Nordic hydro output was also lower year-on-year in November by 5%, at 19.4 terawatt-hours, although stocks remain above the five-year averages.