DRC suspension of exports expected to result in major cobalt shortfall
Reports that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Indonesia are planning to collaborate on cobalt and nickel exports are threatening to have a substantial bearing on the global battery market.
The DRC and Indonesia – the world’s top two cobalt suppliers – have discussed plans to reduce their cobalt exports.
The two nations combined are responsible for more than 85% of total global cobalt production.
Quotas already imposed
DRC Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka announced that the country had already imposed quotas on cobalt production and stockpiles accumulated during a four-month export suspension initiated in February 2025.
With no suspension of production, Fastmarkets expects DRC producers to stockpile cobalt while waiting for permission to export once again.
The news has already affected the market for the critical mineral, with prices up by 84% since February 2025.
‘Significant impact’
“In the last four months of 2024, the DRC exported just under 68,000 tonnes of cobalt contained in hydroxide to China,” Fastmarkets analyst Robert Searle said.
“A halt in these volumes will have a significant impact on the availability of feed for China’s refiners.”
“When comparing China’s refined production in 2024 with total imported cobalt intermediate levels from the DRC and Indonesia, we can see there are still large inventories in the country–but should China continue to process metal at the rate it is, these will quickly be depleted should the export ban be upheld.”
EV-driven demand
Prior to the DRC move, Grand View Research valued the global cobalt market size at $26.96 billion in 2024 and predicted it to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.7% between 2025 and 2030.
Grand View expects the rising production of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase cobalt consumption during this period.
Lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide batteries, which have a cathode containing 10–20% cobalt, are the most common battery chemistries currently used in EVs.
“The ban is likely to highlight Indonesia’s growing importance and critical role as a supplier of cobalt intermediates to China,” Mr Searle wrote.