Is the Critical Minerals Sell-Off a Buying Opportunity for North America-Exposed Names?

By Paul Sanger - October 29, 2025

Critical Minerals Sell-Off Buying Opportunity North America-Exposed Names?

After a two-month global rally in critical minerals and rare earths stocks, especially those with North American assets, the group has slumped over the past 48 hours on headlines that Washington and Beijing have reached a framework to delay new tariffs and relax near-term export restrictions.

The pullback could be technical, not fundamental, as traders take profits, but underlying need and exposure for REE hasn’t escaped reality.

This may offer a window to accumulate quality names leveraged to the multi-year North American supply-chain build-out.

Why these Stocks Ran in the First Place

Policy momentum in the US

The White House has been shifting from “climate” to “security and industrial resilience”, backing domestic supply chains and production with funding, permitting support and, where needed, trade measures across the likes of graphite, rare earths, antimony and more, especially to meet US domestic defence industry needs.

JPMorgan’s mega-initiative

JPMorgan unveiled a US$1.5 trillion, 10-year “Security & Resiliency Initiative” targeting strategic sectors including critical minerals, and has already made a headline US$75 million cornerstone investment in Perpetua Resources alongside Agnico Eagle’s US$180m placement.
That’s real capital signalling long-horizon intent for US domestic production.

Allies aligning

The US and Australia signed a Critical Minerals Framework on 20 October to jointly mobilise at least US$1bn each within six months, streamline permitting and coordinate project selection, an explicit roadmap to diversify away from China-centric chains.
Washington knows the next best option to producing domestically is to procure it from friendly allies.

China’s tightening stance

Through 2024–25, Beijing extended controls across rare earths and related products, reinforcing the West’s vulnerability and spurring re-shoring/ally-shoring plans.

Why the Sell-Off this Week?

Weekend headlines flagged that US and Chinese officials had reached a framework to avert steep new tariffs and delay parts of China’s rare-earth export restrictions regime, pending further talks ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting.

Markets reflexively faded the whole “critical minerals” trade.

But a temporary tariff truce does not unwind the underlying, bipartisan security rationale driving Western capital into domestic and allied supply chains.

The structural initiatives above, US–Australia framework, JPMorgan’s program and first cheque into Perpetua, and ongoing agency-level support, remain intact.

In simple terms: the policy flywheel is still spinning.

North America–Exposed ASX Names Remain Well-Placed

Investors have been rewarding ASX companies with projects, processing, or strategic partnerships in the US/Canada, a trend we’ve highlighted repeatedly as China tightens export controls.

Even with near-term volatility, North American optionality should command a premium as governments, banks and strategics direct capital onshore.

Add the fresh US–Australia framework and the JPMorgan/Agnico signal next door to key US projects, and the policy-capital nexus looks durable, not fleeting.

What to Watch for Next

Follow-through funding & offtakes: Expect additional equity/credit support for priority projects from US Government sources, as the US broadens domestic sources for NdPr, antimony, graphite, gallium and allied inputs.
Permitting acceleration: The new bilateral framework explicitly targets streamlined approvals for mining, separation and processing—key for timelines and valuations.
Further JPMorgan placements/co-investments: The first cheque (Perpetua) is unlikely to be the last; watch for copy-cat capital from strategics and lenders into US-aligned projects.
Any re-tightening by China: Policy risk cuts both ways; renewed restrictions would likely reignite the bid for non-China supply.

Pullbacks Can Be Entry Points

Near-term “deal optimism” headlines can whipsaw sentiment.

But the security-driven re-wiring of critical minerals supply chains is a multi-year project backed by public policy and private capital.

Tthis week’s drawdown might be the opportunity to accumulate high-quality, North America-levered ASX names into weakness.

The US–Australia framework is fresh, funded and actionable.
JPMorgan’s initiative is massive, and it’s already writing cheques (Perpetua).
A short-term tariff pause doesn’t change the strategic imperative to de-risk China exposure in defence and clean-energy supply chains.
The US critical defence industrial complex remains dependent on foreign suppliers, especially China, which is an unacceptable risk.
Opportunities exist not just to upstream critical mineral projects but especially for US domestic processing solutions and/or alliances/partnerships in the supply chain.
Remember that, for example – rare earths aren’t rare – it’s the processing capacity that is rare – and so to for most critical minerals.
To secure supply chains, the US needs investment in processing and refining capacity, as well as raw minerals supply.