Copper price forecasts increase as Trump tariff threat and global deficit drive market concerns

With US President Donald Trump threatening to introduce new tariffs and supply forecasts tipped to tighten, multiple sources are forecasting continued strength in the copper price over the next few years.

The price of the base metal jumped last night on news that President Trump suggested during his speech to Congress that US imports could be subject to a 25% tariff.

That followed his recent announcement that the US Commerce Department would investigate the copper market.

Global deficit looming

Leading investment banker JP Morgan recently forecast copper prices to hit US$11,000 per metric ton next year on the back of a global deficit in refined copper that it sees growing to 160,000 metric tons by 2026.

The bank also expects the government to enact a tariff rate of at least 10% on refined copper and copper product imports by late in the third quarter, with the significant risk of a higher 25% tariff rate.

JP Morgan said the potential buildup of excess stocks in the United States in the coming months ahead of the imposition of copper tariffs could see the rest of the world facing supply shortages, setting the stage for an upward push toward US$10,400 per metric ton in the second half of 2025 .

The investment leader also forecast China’s demand growth would slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, which it sees as the greatest downside risk to its forecasted copper market tightening.

Initial gains limited

Elsewhere, S&P Global was less bullish on copper pricing in 2025, suggesting that US dollar strength and concerns about new US policies may limit gains.

Its forecast of US$9,716 per metric ton for the 2025 LME three-month copper price represented a year-on-year increase of 4.8%.

“Despite concerns over the ongoing deficit in concentrate, further upside to near-term prices faces headwinds from the strong US dollar and the potential impact of Trump administration policies,” S&P noted in its 2025 Metals Price Outlook report.

Mining project activity

S&P also identified 139 copper mining projects it expects to commence over the next two decades.

“Of these, brownfield projects will continue to be prioritised, accounting for two-thirds of the committed capacity,” the report said.

“Latin America is anticipated to play a significant role, with projections indicating it will contribute an average of 42.9% to global copper output from 2025 to 2035.”

S&P found that the global refined copper market showed a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, compared with 124,000 metric tons in November.