Canada’s Fraser Institute says fracking bans costing billions in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick

Canada’s Fraser Institute says bans on hydraulic fracturing have led to billions of dollars’ worth of shale gas potential in both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick going undeveloped.

In a new report, the independent public policy think tank says the shale gas reserves have a potential long-term market value of between $51.8 billion (C$47b) and $209.6b (C$190b).

Kenneth Green, Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of Hydraulic Fracturing: Opportunities for Atlantic Canada, says bans are preventing both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick from fully benefiting economically from the resource.

Unconventional natural gas

“Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are sitting on significant reserves of unconventional natural gas that could be developed via hydraulic fracturing and generate immense benefits for a region that could use an economic boost,” Mr Green said.

Analysts have estimated that shale gas potential at the Horton Bluff in Nova Scotia ranges from 17 trillion cubic feet to 69Tcf.

They estimate New Brunswick’s Frederick Brook shale formation alone holds between 67Tcf and 80 Tcf of gas.

“The development of these resources, as they’re developed elsewhere in Canada and the United States, would mean billions of dollars of private investment and the jobs that accompany it, as well as new provincial government revenues,” Mr Green said.

Shifting moods

On the positive side, governments in the region have recently signalled an openness to removing moratoria on the development of this key resource.

“This type of development in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia would mean more jobs close to home and more investment overall,” Mr Green said.

“Removing the fracking bans would be a good first step in sending a signal that these provinces are ready to responsibly develop their shale gas potential.”

S&P’s latest Commodity Insights short-term outlook paper expects total Canadian gas demand (including exports) in winter 2024–25 to average a record 22.1 billion cubic feet per day.

S&P says this will be driven by robust pipeline exports to the US Lower 48, normal heating loads and the start of material feedgas deliveries to LNG Canada.