Australia on track to overtake China and Russia in gold production by 2030
Australia could challenge China and Russia as the world’s largest gold producer by the end of the decade, if a range of new forecasts are to be believed.
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report is forecasting that Australian gold output may rise to 377 tonnes a year by 2029–30, up from the 289 tonnes produced in 2023–24.
That figure put Australia in third place during this period behind China and Russia.
Upward momentum
China produced the most gold for 2023–24 with 378t, ahead of Russia’s 322t.
Production from both those nations is tipped to potentially slide in coming years, however, while at the same time Australia’s output is expected to climb significantly.
With declining grades and growing environmental and safety pressures impacting small-scale mines, China’s production numbers have been forecast to decline at a compound annual rate of approximately 1% to sit at around 374t in 2030.
Russia’s gold production is also expected to fall to around 314t over the same period as a result of political issues and export bans.
Inclement weather impact
While planned outages and rain impacted Australia’s gold production in 2024, the country’s Chief Economist is forecasting it to increase by about 20t in 2025 and continue improving out to 2030 as the pipeline of gold projects progresses.
Major expansions to existing mines should partially offset declining grades and mine production downgrades.
The new report also noted that additional mill capacity would be coming online, allowing total production to increase.
Significant new projects
New production will receive a boost from Westgold Resources’ (ASX: WGX) Great Fingall project, which remains on track to start up in the first half of 2025 with anticipated annual production of 1.4tpa.
De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG) expects its Hemi gold mine in Western Australia to be operational in 2026, with forecast production of around 17tpa.
Newmont’s (ASX: NEM) extension of the permit for its Cadia underground mine operation in NSW from 2031 to 2050 will also impact long-term numbers.
With reserves of approximately 530t and forecast annual production of around 35 tpa, Cadia is one of Australia’s biggest gold mines.
Newmont is also expanding its Tanami mine and is expected to triple production from its current level of around 6tpa in the second half of 2025.