The Australian share market will emerge from the Easter break with a whole range of variables to consider.
After former former President Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages’’ and crude oil prices rallied, the ASX reversed from a 0.4% rise on Thursday to a 1.1% fall or 92.3 points, to 8579.5 points.
Still, despite that fall, the ASX ended the holiday-shortened week nearly 1% higher.
A more positive response came in Thursday's US trading when two of the three major benchmarks reversed into gains with the S&P 500 up 0.1% after being down 1.5% earlier while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% after rebounding from losses.
Not so lucky was the Dow which finished 0.1% lower.
So, the market trend is pointing to a rise when the ASX reopens after Easter on Tuesday but with so many moving pieces around the situation in Iran and Donald Trump’s confusing announcements about the conflict potentially coming to an end but also threatening massive strikes, anything is possible.
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
There are also ongoing meetings between Iran and Oman about monitoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while the UK hosted a virtual meeting with about 40 nations on how to move forward with reopening and securing the Strait.
Many market pundits see the opening of the Strait as the key sticking point to be overcome before the market will feel free to truly rally, with the eventual price of oil a secondary consideration behind security of supply.
Where to for gold?
Other areas of interest that fluctuated sharply in Australia include the gold miners, which retreated quickly after Trump’s speech and also the technology sector.
Gold fell by up to 2% after the speech which caused shares in Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP), which had leapt more than 5% to close down 1.4% at $12.85 on Thursday.
While the technology sector had traded flat until the speech, it sank by 3% after it, led down by Zip (ASX: ZIP) shares, down 8.2% to $1.58 and helped along by shares in Life360 (ASX: 360), down 5.9% to $18.70, WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) down 4.3% to $37.90, NextDC (ASX: NXT) down 3.8% to $11.30 and Block (ASX: XYZ) down 4.1% to $84.50.
Energy sector goes against the grain
The energy sector was the inverse of the overall market, falling 3.3% in the morning but rallying hard to close down just 0.4%
And while the energy sector fell more than 3.3 per cent in the morning, it finished the day down just 0.4%.
Santos (ASX: STO) shares added 1.4% to $8.08 but the biggest turnaround story was unhedged producer Karoon Energy (ASX: KRO) which flipped from trading at a 4% deficit in the morning to close up 6.5% to $2.12.
Another one to watch when the market reopens after Easter is KMD Brands (ASX: KMD) with the shares being crunched by 54.8% to 7¢ after it resumed trading after finishing the institutional component of its emergency capital raising.
The week ahead
One of the main factors that is keeping markets guessing at the moment is what impact the higher oil prices will have on inflation and future interest rates.
A range of statistics released this week will give some guidance on this front, starting with the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for March which is seen as an early guide to inflation and is released on Tuesday.
China will also report its inflation rate for March on Friday – the same day that the US will release its Consumer Price Index figures, which are expected to increase to around a 3% annual rate in March, up from 2.4% in February.
Aside from these inflation markers, it will primarily be macro factors arising from the Iran war that push markets around.
