And it’s official. I’m in a slump. Couldn’t hit water if I fell out of a boat.
The mighty North Sydney Sun Bears managed a win but only through the work of others. I’ll do what I always do when I start to fall behind and that’s double my efforts in training and in the gym. Work is the only way through a slump. Self-pity is a useless emotion.
Along with these feelings I’m pushing down deep (welcome to the default setting of the adult male) is an injury I’ve picked up that won’t go away.
Emotions aside, the unshakable dread that while you may be faster, stronger, and fitter than at any time previously, you are still fragile and becoming more so by the day.
Perhaps it’s time for a changing of the guard…
Caution: Metaphor Inbound
What else is stronger, faster and fitter but is dangerously fragile? Well, that’d be the software sector, as represented by the ETF IGV above.
New-gen AI has eradicated many a moat this month with more to come.
However, it might be cavalry time for software with fund flows into the space bringing some stability.
The sector will find its balance eventually. We just need to wait for the dust to settle and for the tourists to leave.
I think the changing of the guard is on the way and when that happens some of the old generals stay and some get shown the door, this will be no different.
And before anyone starts declaring the AI trade “done,” have a look at the global adoption chart. We’re barely at the foothills.
Six‑plus billion people haven’t touched AI at all. The monetised user base is a rounding error. The coding‑scaffold crowd is a microscopic sliver.
If this is the end of the AI boom, then the dot‑com bubble must have burst in 1987.
Courtesy @damianplayer
Chartz for days: a chart doing the rounds this week showing a pretty stark changing of the guard in markets.
The old leadership — the stuff that’s carried portfolios for a decade — is wobbling, while the new contenders are quietly tightening their boots.
You don’t need to be a technician to see the rotation forming; you just need to be awake.
And if you want a sense of why the guard is changing, look at the generational split in where people think the real growth is.
Younger investors are leaning into real assets, crypto, private equity, and building their own brands.
Older investors are still clinging to domestic equities like it’s 1998.
Two different worlds, two different realities, and only one of them is actually aligned with where capital formation is heading.
In other words: the runway is long. The guard is changing. And the cavalry is saddling up.
One Interesting Thing Before Breakfast
I’ll leave you with this yarn from Richard Tardio — a reminder that markets aren’t just numbers and charts; they’re human, messy, and occasionally hilarious.
It’s the kind of story that sticks with you because it’s true in spirit even when it sounds absurd.
True or not, it’s still a recognisable yarn.
Finally Finally
Four days in Fremantle for the RIU Explorers Conference. I conducted around 30 interviews, countless meetings and more than a few Swan lagers.
The website will have all of our work up and there’s more to come through but a huge thanks to Blake on supporting us from HQ, Aina on video edits and Ivan on building some very classy tech that the market is loving.
Stay safe and all the best,
James
