First things first: congratulations to Rory McIlroy. To win the Masters once is a career. To defend it and win your second Green Jacket in a row is historic.
Watching him walk off the 18th just now, he didn't just win a golf tournament: he joined the most exclusive club in the sport alongside Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger.
After seventeen years of waiting for the first one, he’s managed to grab two in twenty-four months. It is a win for the ages and a testament to the fact that once the mental block is gone, the talent takes over.
Of course, while the rest of the world was wiping away a tear for Rory’s back-to-back legacy, the real "Master Strategist" was likely watching the presentation with the volume down and a Sharpie in hand.
I can see the scene perfectly: The Donald, feet up on the Resolute Desk, watching the trophy presentation at Augusta with one hand on the remote and the other on a direct line to the Pentagon.
The moment Rory’s spike touched the clubhouse carpet and the cameras panned to the blooming azaleas, Trump hits the mute button. He leans over to a four-star general and gives the "go."
The "Don Tzu" strategy is in full effect. While we were all distracted by wedge play and pimento cheese sandwiches, the skies over the Atlantic were clogging up with C-17 Globemasters.
Augusta, Airspace, and the Art of the Distraction
There is already a LOT of kinetic movement heading back to the Middle East. Trump has essentially ordered a blockade of ships traveling to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz: effectively "solving" a problem of regional instability he largely fostered by creating an even more complex, globally disruptive problem.
It’s the ultimate move from The Art of the Deal (or perhaps The Art of Narcissism): breaking an enemy blockade by simply blockading their entire existence.
Truly, a masterstroke of tactical chaos.
By the time the world finishes tweeting about Rory's back nine, we’ll realise the global energy chokepoint has been padlocked by the US Navy.
For HNW investors and AFSL holders, the takeaway is simple: Geopolitical risk isn't just "priced in" anymore: it’s the primary driver of the bus, and the driver is currently doing donuts in the parking lot.
On the Ground in Adelaide with the Resources Rising Stars
I spent most of last week on the ground at the Resources Rising Stars (RRS) Conference in Adelaide, and let me tell you, the energy in the room was back to an electric feel.
After a short hiatus due to Iran, the "real stuff" is officially back. After a few years of chasing SaaS multiples and AI dreams that haven't quite hit the P&L yet, the market is rediscovering that you can't build a digital utopia without digging things out of the ground.
I spoke to numerous brilliant companies, and the consensus is clear: the commodities supercycle isn't dead: it was just taking a nap while…well…you know.
Gold is the obvious winner. Everyone is talking about it, every cab driver has a "sure thing" junior explorer, and the price action suggests the central banks are finally finished pretending that fiat is the only game in town.
But you know me: I don’t like to get cute when the crowd is already through the door. While the world chases the gold glitter, I’m going to keep banging the drum on tungsten.
Tungsten is the ultimate "Don Tzu" metal. It is hard, strategic, and utterly indispensable for anything that needs to hold up under extreme pressure: including the defense industry currently fueling those C-17s and the high-tech manufacturing China is trying to monopolise.
We are reaching a critical juncture where supply security outweighs price sensitivity.
Because I’m so convinced on this thematic, I’ll be hosting a dedicated tungsten conference in mid-May.
This isn't just another talk shop: it’s a deep dive into the supply chain realities that most brokers are completely missing. I’ll have a signup sheet ready for you in next week’s letter. If you’re managing HNW portfolios or running an AFSL, you’ll want to be in the room for this.
The Acid Trip: The hidden trigger for silver’s next squeeze
While the headlines are dominated by "kinetic" war: missiles and blockades: the "silent" war in the supply chain is where the real money will be made (or lost). We need to talk about Sulfuric Acid.
I want you to pay very close attention to a development coming out of Beijing that most macro desks are ignoring. China is reportedly planning to ban the export of sulfuric acid starting next month. On the surface, it sounds like a boring chemical story. In reality, it is a massive supply shock that is about to send the silver and copper markets into a frenzy.
I’ve been reading a great piece over at Kitco that lays this out perfectly: China's acid ban: The hidden trigger for silver's next squeeze.
The Breakdown for the AFSL Crowd
- The Copper Connection: Sulfuric acid is the literal lifeblood of copper heap leaching. This process is dominant across Chile (which takes roughly 32% of China’s acid exports), Morocco, and Indonesia. No acid means no copper production.
- The Silver By-product Squeeze: Here is the kicker: roughly 70% of newly mined silver is a byproduct of copper and lead/zinc mining. If the copper mines starve for acid, the silver supply dies with it.
- The Perfect Storm: We are already in the sixth consecutive year of a structural silver deficit. Now, add Don Tzu’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupts the elemental sulfur needed to manufacture acid independently.
Silver is no longer just "poor man’s gold." It is an industrial powerhouse essential for the green energy transition and high-spec electronics.
If China pulls the plug on acid exports, we aren't just looking at a price rally: we are looking at a physical scramble.
This is why we continue to bang the drum on Broken Hill mines as a premier local silver play. When the world realises there’s a shortage, you want to be standing next to the headframe of a proven producer. We talk about this on the podcast, link below.
The Final Word: Two mates and a macro call
The ramifications of this "blockade-on-blockade" strategy and the looming Chinese export bans are still to be fully felt by the broader market. We are moving out of the "speculation" phase and into the "realisation" phase.
If you want a more conversational breakdown of the Adelaide conference and why we think the gold and silver renaissance is just getting started, I sat down with my mate Heath Moss on Friday for the latest episode of the Theory of Thing (TOT) podcast.
We discuss the standouts from Resources Rising Stars and why the macro picture is finally aligning for the "dirt diggers."
Summary for the Week
- Macro: Trump is using the "Don Tzu" playbook to distract and disrupt. The Middle East is back to being a primary volatility driver.
- Resources: Adelaide confirmed it: Commodities are back. Gold is the leader, but Tungsten is the strategic sleeper.
- Metals: Silver is the trade of the month if China’s acid ban goes live. Watch the byproduct miners closely.
- Local Play: Stay long Broken Hill Mines BHM.ASX- General advice) if you are already (and if you’re not, call me) and the high-conviction players who actually have rocks in the box.
The world is getting messy, the flights are getting frequent, and the supply chains are getting choked.
As I always say: Don’t get cute. Stick to the hard assets and the strategic realities.
See you at the Tungsten Conference.
PS: Speaking of calls, here is a scorecard of ARK Invest’s 2021 report of Tesla, that was divisive purely because of the number of people who followed their work on it.
As anyone who has followed me knows, I find Cathie Wood and the whole ARK thing a con that should have been thrown in the trash with any covid facemask and self-testing kit. Absolute torch of money.
Anyway here are the results of their “research”.
