Select Harvests Narrows Crop Guidance As Almond Prices Strengthen

Select Harvests (ASX: SHV) expects a near-record 2026 almond crop of 28,800–29,600 metric tonnes (MT), narrowing its previous guidance range of 28,000–31,000MT.

The revised range represents growth of 16% to 19% on the previous year despite unusually wet harvest conditions in late February and early March.

The almond pool price has increased to A$10.26 per kilogram from A$10.21/kg, with 81% of the 2026 crop sold or contracted and 91% hedged at US$0.665.

Wet harvest and other one-off operational costs are now expected to total $13.9 million, while year-end net debt remains on track to finish below $65m.

Wet Harvest Costs Rise

Some growing regions received more than 300% of average harvest rainfall, requiring additional drying and extending the processing period as Select Harvests worked through the larger crop.

Those conditions, together with the Middle East conflict, inflationary pressures, and other non-recurring items, added a further $7m of costs in the second half after $6.9m had been forecast at the half year.

Select Harvests has invested about $30m in a new pre-cleaner and dryer, a kernel recovery line, new shakers, and expanded capacity, which it considers critical to lifting crop volumes while maintaining required quality.

External grower throughput is expected at 13,800MT–14,200MT, up 88% to 94% on 2025 but below the previous 15,400MT guidance, after growers also used the group’s drying capacity and processing facilities.

Almond Market Tightens Further

Global almond prices have risen significantly over the past six months, with reported prices recently reaching a 10-year high in US dollars.

Select Harvests attributes the move to structural supply pressures in California, which accounts for about 77% of global almond supply and is facing restrictive groundwater regulation and rising growing costs.

California bearing acreage is forecast to fall this year for the first time since 1995 and continue declining for the next three to five years, while the 2025–2026 crop is expected at less than 2.7 billion pounds with carry-out below 500Mlb.

The business considers this supply contraction, combined with continuing demand growth, to be the underlying driver of recent record almond prices and the stronger pool pricing achieved for its 2026 crop.

Strengthened Balance Sheet

Select Harvests expects strong cash flows from the larger crop and a strengthened balance sheet to support its ongoing share buy-back program and the interim dividend paid in July 2026.

Despite delays caused by the wet and late harvest, year-end net debt is expected below $65m with gearing below 11%, measured as net debt divided by net debt plus equity.

Pollination has recently been completed with strong bee capacity and hive health, which the business considers a solid foundation for early crop development across its orchard portfolio.

Select Harvests plans to release its full-year 2026 results on 25 November 2026 and provide further details on the trading position in November.