- 01Post-tax NPV7 A$920m; IRR 49%.
- 02Capex A$411m; post-tax FCF A$1.37b.
- 0310-year plan: 247kt CuEq; AISC US$1.00/lb.
- 04No ore reserve; Class 5 accuracy (-30% to +50%).
Pivotal Metals (ASX: PVT) has outlined a post-tax net present value at a 7% discount rate (NPV7) of A$920 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 49% for its 100%-owned Horden Lake project in Québec, Canada.
The maiden scoping study models an initial 10-year operation producing 247,000 tonnes of copper equivalent (CuEq) at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1.00 per pound of copper after by-product credits.
Net pre-production capital is estimated at A$411m, while the study forecasts A$1,369m of post-tax free cash flow over the project life and a 1.3-year post-tax payback from first production.
The base case assumes copper at US$5.50/lb and generates pre-tax NPV7 of A$1,333m and IRR of 56%, while spot pricing lifts post-tax NPV7 to A$1,343m and IRR to 63%.
The study is preliminary and prepared to Class 5 accuracy of -30% to +50%, with no Ore Reserve declared and no certainty that the production target or forecast financial outcomes will be realised.
Conventional Open-Pit Design
Horden Lake is planned as a conventional open pit feeding a 3.5-million-tonnes-per-annum crush-grind-flotation plant producing separate copper and nickel concentrates through established processing technology.
The mine plan schedules 34Mt of ore and 269Mt of waste, with higher-grade Measured and Indicated material prioritised in the early years to accelerate capital payback.
“Horden Lake stands as a simple, low-cost copper project with robust returns in a Tier-1 jurisdiction, at a time when the market needs new supply,” managing director Ivan Fairhall said.
“Significant upside remains, both in converting more of the defined resource into the mine plan and in the growth potential evident in our drilling and geophysics.”
“We have shown our ability to grow the deposit, and this study helps articulate the value still to be created with the drill bit.”
Production Target Support
As of July 2026, the mineral resource estimate for Horden Lake is 52.4Mt at 1.05% CuEq for 549,000t of contained CuEq, including 292,000t of copper and 91,000t of nickel.
The production target uses a subset of the open-pit component of the MRE, and excludes the out-of-pit resource that could potentially contribute to a future underground mine, subject to further drilling.
About 30% of life-of-mine net smelter return (NSR) in the production target is derived from Inferred resources, while approximately 86% of material scheduled during the capital-payback period is Indicated or higher.
Located approximately 130 km north of the town of Matagami in Québec’s James Bay District, the Horden Lake deposit comprises 1,032 hectares of claims fully owned by Pivotal’s local subsidiary.
The deposit remains open along strike and at depth, with only eight holes penetrating the mineralised contact below 300 metres vertically and electromagnetic surveys defining a broader conductive target horizon for further drilling.
Funding and Development Pathway
Pivotal estimates more than A$400m of additional funding will be required to develop Horden Lake, and has appointed a strategic adviser to assess potential equity, debt, and project-level financing alternatives.
The project has no binding offtake arrangement, leaving its planned copper and nickel concentrate production available for financing structures, while by-product revenues from nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, and platinum group metals could provide additional flexibility.
Engineering and permitting are intended to advance together, with a pre-feasibility study, two summer baseline seasons, and a feasibility study planned before submission for environmental and social impact review.
Further work will focus on converting Inferred resources, expanding the deposit, evaluating staged development, and progressing PFS engineering, environmental studies, permitting, and stakeholder engagement.
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