New Zealand King Salmon (ASX: NZK) has significantly upgraded its FY26 earnings guidance following stronger-than-expected summer farming performance, though it has also widened the outlook range to account for near-term supply chain and cost risks.
The company now expects to deliver between NZ$19 million and NZ$27 million, a substantial increase from the previous forecast of NZ$9 million to NZ$15 million.
Pro-forma EBIT guidance for FY26 has also improved markedly, with the outlook now standing at a profit of NZ$10 million to NZ$18 million, shifting from the prior range which included a NZ$3 million loss up to a NZ$3 million profit.
Furthermore, expected FY26 harvest volumes for whole gilled and gutted fish have risen.
The company anticipates harvesting between 5,800 and 6100 metric tonnes, up from the previous guidance of 5,500 to 5,900 metric tonnes.
Summer Farming Success Drives Upgrade
The upgrade stems from better-than-forecast biological performance during the critical summer farming period.
Mortality rates over summer were lower than anticipated, and feed-out rates remained strong.
This positive operational execution resulted in more fish available to sell, coupled with improved fish size and quality.
Consequently, a higher biomass is now available for harvest.
The company attributed these performance improvements to a new summer feed diet, developed from prior-year feed trials, and stronger operational execution across its sea farms.
Risks Broaden Guidance Range
Despite the positive operational results, New Zealand King Salmon has broadened its FY26 guidance range.
This adjustment reflects ongoing external uncertainties that could impact the remainder of the financial year.
Key concerns include potential fluctuations in air freight cost and availability.
Additionally, higher production and supply chain costs are flagged due to global oil prices, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict.
Investors can expect a more comprehensive first-half performance update when the company releases its half-year results in late May.
Annual Report Highlights Challenges
The company’s FY25 (eight months ended 30 September 2025) annual report previously highlighted significant biological challenges.
This included weaker fish performance, reduced harvest volumes, and a temporary rationing of harvests to allow biomass recovery.
During that FY25 period, New Zealand King Salmon reported a net loss of NZ$6.3 million, with a pro-forma EBITDA of NZ$7.1 million that underscores the impact of biological variability on profitability.
Growth initiatives, such as the Blue Endeavour open-ocean pilot, also faced delays in FY25.
Mooring grid installation was anticipated to be completed in early 2026, with fish relocation to the site expected later that year.
