A new report from independent market intelligence provider IDTechEx is suggesting that while battery prices are set to fall, their current high cost is still a concern for the construction and mining sectors.
IDTechEx’s “Electric Vehicles in Construction 2023-2043″ report says that while larger electric vehicles are attracting growing interest, a current hindrance to stronger market acceptance is the high battery prices.
However, the new IDTechEx research has found that battery pricing could soon be tipping in the favour of electric vehicles.
Endurance levels still a concern
Aside from pricing, the other major issue facing the take up of the larger electric vehicles for industries like mining and construction is their tolerance to heavy workloads over lengthy periods.
This has been confirmed in new data obtained by IDTechEx which has identified that the endurance of the machines and their ability to complete long, arduous days is still considered questionable.
IDTechEx’s research shows that the average electric machine will fall short if running a continuous 8-hour day.
While this can be mitigated with fast charging, tethering, or even battery-swapping options, there are also concerns about the growing size of the batteries required to meet the high demand tasks.
Bigger and bigger batteries
IDTechEx says that to obtain adequate endurance for something like a 23-tonne wheel loader or a 27-tonne excavator, manufacturers are installing battery packs with capacities in the hundreds of megawatts per hour, with some stretching as far as 700 megawatts per hour, the equivalent of powering nearly a dozen Tesla Model 3s’.
Apart from the huge space these batteries are going to take up, the cost of these giant batteries is a current concern. Even at automotive prices, 700 megawatts per hour is expected to cost around $110,000.
IDTechEx says the critical question is will this outlay be repaid in fuel savings and reduced maintenance?
Smaller construction vehicles an option
This equation may not be as threatening for companies looking to acquire smaller construction vehicles.
The IDTechEx research found that while costs for the electric power systems for small construction vehicles can be as much as twice as expensive as the internal combustion option, it can be balanced out when compared to the cost of diesel fuel.
IDTechEx says for electric excavators from around 30 tonnes and even up to 50 tonnes, the potential fuel savings are huge.
The analysis in IDTechEx’s report shows that the average 30-tonne excavator will consume around $28,000 per year in fuel. However, the equivalent electric machine would cost around $15,000 in electricity, a little over half.
If you take that out over a 12 year period, an estimated vehicle’s lifetime, that may be more than $157,000 in savings before maintenance.
“However, a machine this size will likely need a 350-450 kilowatt per hour battery pack to give adequate endurance. Reaching the right cost per kilowatt per hour will be essential for making the transition worthwhile,” the IDTechEx study suggested.
Prices still too high
To ensure that owners and operators start seeing a return on their investment before their vehicles reach end of life, the IDTechEx report finds that battery prices need to fall below around $630 per kilowatt hour.
“The good news is that OEMs should already be able to secure this sort of pricing when scaling to series production of electric construction machines,” the report suggested.
It also proposes that if an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) could build an EV with batteries at around $150 per kilowatt, vehicle owners could see a return on their investment in as little as 2-3 years.
“At this time scale, the switch to EV should be a no-brainer.”
Lower maintenance costs
An added attraction for future EV buyers is the potential savings on maintenance, with estimates suggesting there may be at least a 50% reduction in maintenance costs.
While all these potential savings look exciting now, IDTechEx says construction companies may have to pump their brakes for the moment.
The research firm says it will likely take several more years for the $150 per kilowatt machines to come to market.
