Can You Trust AI to Choose Your Shares for You?

Artificial Intelligence has been a big plus for investment markets but would you trust it to pick stocks for you?

It is a difficult question to answer because it effectively means you are trusting a black box to win on the share market and despite oceans of back testing, the future may be different and throw up new variables.

If you want to give it a crack, ETF provider VanEck have launched a Dynamic International ETF (ASX: GOAT) that claims to use AI agents to simulate millions of market scenarios to adapt its portfolio to changing macroeconomic conditions.

A new Akros index developed by VanEck and Korean based AI and quantitative index specialist Akros Technologies uses so-called generative reinforcement learning to autonomously pick stocks that are based on future outcomes.

Retail Investor Access

VanEck claims it now gives retail investors cheaper access to AI-powered stock picking, which is a strategy used by many high-profile money managers including Sydney hedge fund Minotaur Capital and other quantitative trading firms.

“What was once the exclusive preserve of multibillion-dollar quant shops with floors of PhDs is now accessible to every Australian with a brokerage account,” is the bold claim by VanEck head of Asia-Pacific, Arian Neiron.

While it might be the first AI ETF on the ASX, it is unlikely to be the last with Minotaur looking to launch of its own ETF down the track.

Whittling Choices Down

VanEck’s International ETF will be rebalanced each month by an AI model that sifts through about 1,200 of the world’s largest companies in developed markets outside Australia and then calculates a score for each based on more than 10,000 signals.

The calculations involve traditional fundamentals, such as valuation and earnings, as well as technical factors such as momentum and macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and inflation.

The model then selects the 150 stocks that have the highest probability of outperforming the market.

Some of the early top holdings for the ETF include well known technology names such as Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla, as well as some more interesting picks such as oil and gas major ExxonMobil and heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar.

Mr Neiron calls it the “industrialisation of alpha”, and says AI investing will be as transformative for asset management as indexing was in the 1970’s.

“AI doesn’t get anchored, it doesn’t get emotional, and it doesn’t have career risk that stops it from being early,” he claimed.

A simulated track record for the Akros Enhanced World ex-Australia Index showed that it would have delivered a 12.6% return a year since July 2005, outperforming the MSCI index by 3% a year.

Better in Weak Markets

“What is compelling about the simulated record is not just the return premium—it is where that premium was earned,” Mr Neiron said.

“The strategy’s strongest relative performance has come in stressed, weak-cycle conditions.”

The launch of GOAT comes amid a flood of new product launches in the ETF space with VanEck alone also launching ETFs covering Global Semiconductors, Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ex-China, and a Quantum Computing ETF on the ASX.

A record 72 new ETFs were added in the 2026 financial year, on the back of strong demand from retail investors looking for a cheap and tax-effective ways to access major share indices, as well as ride new investment themes.